Recently, the average amount of time to foreclose on a house in the U.S. was reported to be 359 days. Assume that the standard deviation for this population is 90.4 days. A random sample of 42 homes that have completed the foreclosure process was selected. What is the probability that the sample average was less than 375 days?

Respuesta :

Answer:

87.49% probability that the sample average was less than 375 days

Step-by-step explanation:

To solve this question, we need to understand the normal probability distribution and the central limit theorem.

Normal probability distribution

Problems of normally distributed samples are solved using the z-score formula.

In a set with mean [tex]\mu[/tex] and standard deviation [tex]\sigma[/tex], the zscore of a measure X is given by:

[tex]Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}[/tex]

The Z-score measures how many standard deviations the measure is from the mean. After finding the Z-score, we look at the z-score table and find the p-value associated with this z-score. This p-value is the probability that the value of the measure is smaller than X, that is, the percentile of X. Subtracting 1 by the pvalue, we get the probability that the value of the measure is greater than X.

Central Limit Theorem

The Central Limit Theorem estabilishes that, for a normally distributed random variable X, with mean [tex]\mu[/tex] and standard deviation [tex]\sigma[/tex], the sampling distribution of the sample means with size n can be approximated to a normal distribution with mean [tex]\mu[/tex] and standard deviation [tex]s = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}[/tex].

For a skewed variable, the Central Limit Theorem can also be applied, as long as n is at least 30.

In this question, we have that:

[tex]\mu = 359, \sigma = 90.4, n = 42, s = \frac{90.4}{\sqrt{42}} = 13.95[/tex]

What is the probability that the sample average was less than 375 days?

This is the pvalue of Z when X = 375. So

[tex]Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}[/tex]

By the Central Limit Theorem

[tex]Z = \frac{X - \mu}{s}[/tex]

[tex]Z = \frac{375 - 359}{13.95}[/tex]

[tex]Z = 1.15[/tex]

[tex]Z = 1.15[/tex] has a pvalue of 0.8749.

87.49% probability that the sample average was less than 375 days

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