A classic experiment in the 1960s eloquently illustrated the technical side of conservatism bias. The researchers presented subjects with two urns: one containing 3 blue balls and 7 red balls, the other containing 7 blue balls and 3 red ones. Subjects were given thisinformation and then told that someone had drawn randomly 12 timesfrom one of the urns [with replacement]. Subjects were told that thisdraw yielded 8 reds and 4 blues. They were then asked, "What is theprobability that the draw was made from the rst urn?" Formulate the problem in terms of Bayes' Rule. State all of your assumptions and all assignments explicitly.