Adverse Selection Problem: It is March 2020 and there is evidence of people getting sick from an unknown virus. Only 2 percent of the population have visible symptoms; they require hospitalization and are known to have the virus. Another 10 percent of people are infected with the virus but are asymptomatic and do not know they are infected. The remaining 88 percent of the population are not infected with the virus. As of March 2020, there is no test to determine whether an asymptomatic person has the virus. Hospitalization costs are $40,000 on average. In the U.S., anyone who is hospitalized cannot buy health insurance because they already have the condition. These unlucky few must pay for healthcare out of their own pocket. Asymptomatic patients have a 50 percent chance of needing hospitalization. Uninfected patients have a 10 percent chance of eventually needing hospitalization. People who do contract the virus but who do not require hospitalization eventually recover at home and thus do not use insurance. Both the asymptomatic and uninfected population groups want to get insurance as soon as possible. If you assume that both uninfected and asymptomatic patients want to buy insurance, how much would an insurance company in a competitive market charge for expected costs?

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