The manager of a travel agency has been using a seasonally adjusted forecast to predict demand for packaged tours. The actual and predicted values are as follows:
Period Demand Predicted
1 131 113 2 191 200 3 151 150 4 86 102 5 81 80 6 126 135 7 121 128 8 134 124 9 99 109 10 154 150 11 109 94 12 94 80 13 129 140 14 139 128 a. Compute MAD for the fifth period, then update it period by period using exponential smoothing with α = .05. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 3 decimal places.)
t
Period A
Demand MADt
1 131 2 191 3 151 4 86 5 81 6 126 7 121 8 134 9 99 10 154 11 109 12 94 13 129 14 139 b. Compute a tracking signal for periods 5 through 14 using the initial and updated MADs. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 3 decimal places.)
t
Period A
Demand Tracking
Signal
1 131 2 191 3 151 4 86 5 81 6 126 7 121 8 134 9 99 10 154 11 109 12 94 13 129 14 139