.Consider the following time series data.
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6
Value 18 13 16 11 17 14
Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy:
Mean absolute error (MAE)
Mean squared error (MSE)
Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)
Round your answers to two decimal places. (These are the correct answers)
MAE = 4.40
MSE = 20.80
MAPE = 31.88
Using the average of all the historical data as a forecast for the next period, compute the same three values. Round your answers to two decimal places. (These are the correct answers so what would be MAPE value?
MAE = 2.73
MSE = 10.86
MAPE = ?
Which method appears to provide the more accurate forecasts for the historical data?
Average of all the historical data
Explain.